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Inflation: Did Team Transitory Lose?
By Dr. Leila Heckman and Paul Wachtel, February 3, 2022
My inflation blog last March was a warning to Millennials who have never experienced inflation that price stability should not be taken for granted. Read More »
Taper Tantrums and Emerging Markets
By Dr. Leila Heckman and Paul Wachtel, November 3, 2021
In the Global Financial Crisis, the Fed quickly dropped interest rates to zero and introduced new unconventional approaches to monetary policy. Read More »
Monetary Policy and Dividend-Focused Stocks
By Dr. Leila Heckman, September 13, 2021
Most investors are aware that returns on dividend-focused stocks are affected by interest rates. Dividend yields do not actually move in lock-step with either long-or short-term... Read More »
Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Two Peas in a Troubled Pod
By Paul Wachtel, September 1, 2021
Fiscal policy is made by Congress and when a deficit occurs, the Treasury finances it with bond sales. Monetary policy is conducted by the Federal Reserve that... Read More »
Trying to Predict U.S. Dollar Returns in International Markets after U.S. Dollar strengthened
By Dr. Leila Heckman, July 16, 2021
With the Federal Reserve starting to talk about raising interest rates, a concern has been that higher U.S. interest rates might be associated with a short run strengthening of the US dollar. Read More »
Racial Inequities: Is there a role for the Fed?
By Paul Wachtel, May 30, 2021
Pehaps responding to the racial tensions that rocked the country last year, policy makers in the Federal Reserve system and elsewhere have taken note of the stark reality of racial disparities in income and wealth in the US. Read More »
Value vs Growth: Indicators Help Time Stock Selection in Emerging Markets
By Dr. Leila Heckman, May 4, 2021
The analysis was based on the top-down strategy of overweighting cheap emerging markets and underweighting expensive emerging markets based on valuation indicators. Read More »
Allocating Emerging Markets Based on Value
By Dr. Leila Heckman, April 7, 2021
To the chagrin of many value managers, value as an investment style for stock selection has not worked for much of the last ten years. Read More »
Is Inflation Really Dead?
By Paul Wachtel, March 23, 2021
Inflation seems like a relic of a former age. It began to creep up on us during the Vietnam war era in the late 1960’s. Read More »
What They've Been Through and Where We See Value: Higher Education
By Greg Serbe, March 18, 2021
From our perspective, the COVID-19 era was filled with immense challenges and municipalities did what they had to do to survive. Read More »
A Dominant Dividend Strategy During Downdrafts: Which One Works Wonders
By Dr. Leila Heckman, February 22, 2021
As the U.S. market has hit new highs recently, there is some concern that we are in a stock market bubble. Read More »
The Great Dividend Divide
By Dr. Leila Heckman, January 12, 2021
It is important to know that the highest dividend yielding stocks are not necessarily the best source either for consistent dividend income or equity returns. Read More »
Economists Get it Wrong. But Actually Help Predict Value’s Dominance Over Growth
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, October 7, 2020
Who’d have thunk getting it wrong could lead to better investment outcomes? Our latest research identifies how economists’ forecasts, while often wrong, are actually linked to a standout predictive indicator of Value’s future outperformance over Growth. Read More »
The War between Value and Growth: Is the PMI Change Sounding the Trumpets at this Stage in the Battle?
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, August 10, 2020
The July 2020 ISM’s Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) published on August 3, 2020 was 54.2, and the 3-month change in the PMI was a whopping +31%. Several weeks ago, I published a research note which tried to answer the question whether Value or Growth tended to do better as the U.S. recovered from a recession using the 3-month change in the PMI index of 10% or greater as an indicator of when Value might start outperforming Growth. Read More »
Veni, Vidi, Vici, Value: The Value vs. Growth War-- Does Value Conquer Growth Coming out of Recessions?
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, June 23, 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. into a recession. Looking forward, whether the economic pattern for recovery is V shaped or U shaped, it would be helpful to gain insight as to whether Value stocks historically have done better than Growth stocks as the U.S. comes out of a recession. One can argue as the economy improves, Value stocks—which tend to be in cyclical industries and become inexpensive during a recessionary selloff—should benefit the most from economic recovery. What about looking at all the recessions over the past 40 years? What can they tell us? Read More »
Heckman Global Advisors Research Discovers One Dividend Factor Far and Away More Valuable than Others
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, May 28, 2020
This research examines how dividend information can be used for allocating equity markets. We look at dividend yields and as well as trailing and forecsted dividend growth for equity allocation decisions among countries. Read More »
The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?
By Dr. Merih Uctum, PhD, Economist June 22, 2020
The Emerging Market (EM) economies that came out of the 2008 financial crisis relatively faster than advanced economies are hard hit by a quadruple-whammy this time: the pandemic, capital outflows, economic recession, and debt crisis. In March 2020, more than USD100 billion flew out of the EMs. This analysis looks at the flight to safety of global investors and its impact on these economies that owe more than $8 trillion in foreign-currency debt. Read More »
The R word-- just how scary is it for equity investors?
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, March 13, 2020
If the latest global shock from the Covid-19 virus pulls the US into a recession, what might happen to equity returns? For a historical perspective, we looked at price returns of the S&P 6 months before a recession, during a recession, and 6 months after a recession. Read More »
We Have Seen this Movie Before
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, March 4, 2020
During the week of February 24th, there was over a week of broad, persistent selling in the global markets. Although we have not seen the coronavirus before and are not sure when it will be contained, we have seen such broad selling of the global markets from global shocks before. Read More »
Global Dividend Yield Perspective
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, February 10, 2020
At the end of January 2020, the dividend yield of the US market* was 1.9%. This yield is currently higher than the 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 1.5%. Figure 1 shows the dividend yield of the US since the end of December 1969. Read More »
Taxable Munis — Value Amidst the Winds of Change in Today’s Muni Market?
By Greg Serbe, December 9, 2019
The municipal bond market has always been seen as a quiet, but rewarding, portion of the fixed income market. While many investors love to share their latest equity successes, rarely do they spend time bragging about their investment in a school district, Read More »
How much is global GDP growth slowing down in 2019?
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, August 27, 2019
Below are charts which contrast average consensus GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 for the developed markets and the emerging markets. GDP 2018 forecasts were revised upward during 2017 and stabilized in mid-2018 for both developed and emerging markets. Read More »
Global Earnings Forecast Revisions
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, July 23, 2019
With 2Q earnings season underway in the U.S., the question arises as to what effect trade and the global slowdown are having on 3Q19 earnings. Below are charts of 1-month upward company revisions (defined as number of companies with upward revisions divided by the total number of companies with upward and downward revisions) for the U.S., Read More »
Global Bull Markets and Earnings Growth
By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, July 8, 2019
As the current bull market is now 93 months long (since 1970, the average bull market has lasted 56 months), the question naturally arises whether a market correction is due. Putting this question in perspective, since 1970, Read More »
Tale of Emerging Market Currencies 2018 and 2019
By Dr. Leila Heckman June 24, 2019
Last year, much commentary was on Emerging Market equity and currency declines. The Federal Reserve raised rates four times in 2018. A stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for Emerging Market companies and sovereigns. Read More »
Podcasts
July 15, 2019:
“This Week’s Big Bank Earnings Give Clues About the Economy” article on Fortune.com quoting Marc Rappaport, DCM’s CEO.
June 19, 2019:
“How to Mix it Up with Top-Notch Bonds” article in U.S. News & World Report quoting Marc Rappaport, DCM’s
Press Releases
August 2, 2021:
Markston International Portfolio Managers to Continue Managing Investment Portfolios on DCM’s Multi-Brand Boutique Platform.
June 27, 2019:
DCM Advisors hires Marc Rappaport as CEO.
*DISCLOSURE: The opinions expressed herein are those of DCM Advisors, LLC (“DCM”) and are subject to change without notice. This material is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It should not be assumed that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. DCM is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about DCM including its advisory services and fee schedule can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.